Nebraska-Wisconsin prediction, storylines: New Big Ten coaches meet

June 18, 2024

Luke Fickell and Matt Rhule one year ago at this time faced career-defining decisions.

Fickell, entrenched at Cincinnati and one season removed from taking a Group of 5 program for the first time to the College Football Playoff, was ready to move from Ohio, his home state, as the Bearcats prepared for a jump to the Big 12.

Equally surprising to many industry observers, Rhule was seriously considering a quick return to coaching after the Carolina Panthers fired him in the middle of his third season. The Panthers awarded Rhule with a hefty contract buyout, even if he stayed away from the sideline for a year or longer.

In the weeks ahead of Thanksgiving, Nebraska identified Rhule as its primary target to replace Scott Frost, fired on Sept. 11. Rhule liked what he saw in Lincoln, but complications existed around the financial terms of his Carolina exit. The situation threatened to kill a deal with Nebraska officials, who grew aware of Fickell’s willingness to move if he found a solid fit — most likely in the Big Ten.

How much effort was made by Nebraska to connect with Fickell amid the Rhule uncertainty? It remains a mystery buried beneath the turns of the coaching carousel.

Ultimately, it did not matter. Rhule and Nebraska struck a deal on Thanksgiving. His hire was announced two days later. The same Saturday, Wisconsin lost at home, 23-16 against Minnesota.

To enter that final weekend of the regular season, interim coach Jim Leonhard had won four of his first six games with the Badgers after the Oct. 2 firing of Paul Chryst. Leonhard earned widespread support to receive the job permanently.

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But 24 hours after Nebraska made its announcement on Rhule, Wisconsin plucked Fickell.

Simultaneously, they navigated that stretch to land at Big Ten West destinations. Both coaches received fat contracts as the conference plunged toward a $7 billion TV and multimedia rights deal, completed in August, that left the schools resourced to strive for the top of their sport.

One year later, Fickell, 50, and the 48-year-old Rhule meet Saturday night at Camp Randall Stadium as coaching rivals for the first time. Nebraska and Wisconsin both sit at 5-5 before this meeting, their last as division foes, and mired in a five-way tie for second place in the West.

Beat writers Mitch Sherman (Nebraska) and Jesse Temple (Wisconsin) discuss the state of the two programs ahead of the matchup.

Luke Fickell was hired last November to replace Paul Chryst as Wisconsin’s head coach. (Jeff Hanisch / USA Today)

Current records aside, how have the first years for Fickell and Rhule felt?

Temple: It’s hard to ignore the current record because of what it means relative to where Wisconsin was expected to be in Year 1 of the Fickell era. This is my 13th season covering the Badgers, and I can’t remember an offseason that came with so much anticipation. Adding quarterback Russell Wilson in 2011 was a big deal. But that was one transfer (albeit a phenomenal one). Wisconsin, in this new transfer portal era, added 15 scholarship transfers, including QB Tanner Mordecai, who threw for 7,152 yards and 72 touchdowns as a two-year starter at SMU.

Fickell was one of the hottest coaching commodities in college football. He brought new energy and hired offensive coordinator Phil Longo to overhaul the offense with an Air Raid system that put up points everywhere Longo had been. With running backs Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi — one of the top tandems in the country — all the pieces seemed to be there to succeed. But Mellusi broke his left leg in Week 4, Allen and Mordecai have missed games with injuries, and the offense has been disjointed all season.

Maybe we all overinflated expectations before the season and just how difficult this transition would be. Wisconsin was picked in the preseason media poll as the Big Ten West favorite. But Wisconsin athletics director Chris McIntosh has said on numerous occasions that the goal of the football program is to compete for championships. So, if that’s the goal internally, then why shouldn’t that be the expectation externally?

The problem is that the Badgers aren’t close to doing so right now for a variety of reasons: scheme, personnel, injuries, coaching, team chemistry. Fickell used the word “embarrassing” to describe Wisconsin’s 24-10 loss to Northwestern last Saturday. All of this doesn’t mean Fickell can’t elevate Wisconsin to new heights with more time. Ten games do not make a tenure, especially when the Badgers have invested so much in Fickell for the long term. But this season, undeniably, has been a disappointment. And qualifying for a 22nd consecutive bowl game, which Wisconsin is attempting to do with one more regular season victory, simply isn’t enough.

What’s interesting about where these two programs are is that it seems like Nebraska has largely been encouraged by its first season under Rhule even though both teams have identical records. Maybe it’s because Nebraska hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2016 and Rhule is taking steps in the right direction after the Frost era. Am I reading the situation correctly?

Sherman: The response to Rhule and his coaching staff has been largely positive this season, with a few notable exceptions. Much grumbling exists around the offense. The Huskers are scoring less than 19 points per game, on track to rank as the lowest figure at Nebraska since 1968.

Its 27 turnovers, including 22 committed by quarterbacks, lead the nation. Nebraska is second-to-last in turnover margin to extend a troubling 20-year trend.

Injuries have ravaged the offense. Nebraska is down two of its top running backs, two top receivers and two starting offensive linemen, all for the season, as it heads to Madison. But the regression offensively after a three-game winning streak in October has dampened some of the enthusiasm that surrounded Rhule’s debut season.

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Still, he’s been received well. Defensive coordinator Tony White has worked wonders, turning Nebraska into a top-20 unit with his 3-3-5 scheme. Much less drama emanates from Memorial Stadium with Rhule in charge than during previous regimes. Nebraska fans appreciate the stable leadership.

Keep in mind, the bar was set low. Not only have the Huskers failed to qualify for a bowl in each of the past six seasons, they’ve reached the five-win mark only once. So this team, despite its clear shortcomings, already sits ahead of most recent groups at Nebraska.

Fans won’t be nearly as forgiving if similar woes exist in the years ahead. Nebraska has a lot to clean up in the upcoming offseason.

Matt Rhule returned to college coaching after being fired by the Carolina Panthers. (Dylan Widger / USA Today)

What does Wisconsin need to address in the months ahead?

Temple: I think it has to start on offense and determining whether this system is something that can actually work at Wisconsin. Fickell is as competitive as anybody, and it’s been clear in recent weeks how frustrated he is with the lack of results. In Wisconsin’s four Big Ten losses, the Badgers have scored 6, 10, 14 and 10 points. There is no world in which that’s going to be good enough to compete for titles.

Much like with Nebraska, the injuries haven’t helped. But I also think we’re seeing what happens when a program like Wisconsin doesn’t have the likes of Melvin Gordon or Jonathan Taylor carrying the Badgers to success. Both those players were Doak Walker Award winners (Taylor did it twice). Gordon did it in a season in which Wisconsin’s quarterbacks threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Wisconsin has three running backs committed in the 2024 recruiting class, including a pair of four-star prospects. If at least one of those players can emerge, that would be beneficial for the offense.

Every position group needs to be better. We’ve been talking about the offensive line trying to find the dominant form of a decade ago for years. Maybe the answer for some positions is the transfer portal, although that clearly doesn’t guarantee anything. This staff is going to have to develop its talent, just as it did at Cincinnati. There are some good pieces on offense and defense, but the Badgers need to learn to play together and with the toughness that Fickell expects.

Mitch, what about Nebraska?

What do the Cornhuskers need to figure out this offseason?

Sherman: It starts with the quarterback. Heinrich Haarberg fought admirably in winning five of his first six starts after Jeff Sims suffered an ankle injury late in the Huskers’ Week 2 loss at Colorado. But Big Ten defenses exposed Haarberg’s shortcomings in the passing game, and he’s taken a pounding. Nebraska must go back into the transfer portal for a quarterback after this season.

You can bet that ball security will be a focus — again — for the Huskers in the offseason. Defensively, the foundation is in place. Rhule ought to reward White for his strong work with a raise before he looks too hard at opportunities to advance. The 44-year-old coordinator possesses the look of a head coach, but he could boost his resume with another year or two of building the Blackshirts back into a formidable group.

Instant Impact Defensive Coordinator of the Year: @HuskerCoachTW

Coach White has taken a #Nebraska defensive unit which ranked outside the Top 55 last season & turned them into a Top 10 defensive unit w/ an incredible 35.7% increase in per play efficiency.#Huskers pic.twitter.com/ldAU70gueM

— Matrix Analytical (@CFBAnalytical) November 16, 2023

Elsewhere, the offseason ahead is about continuing to reinforce the principles that guide Rhule’s program. Nebraska upped its physicality in the season and in the months before and after spring practice. The intensity of this first year came as a shock for some Huskers. They’ll be better positioned in 2024 to benefit from Rhule’s demanding culture.

His system won’t work for everyone. But for those who find a fit in Lincoln, the effectiveness of the new Nebraska system figures to increase with the time invested.

As for Saturday, what do you expect from Wisconsin? And give us a score prediction.

Temple: It’s difficult to have a ton of confidence in Wisconsin right now, particularly after the way the last two weeks have unfolded. I thought perhaps Wisconsin was turning a corner after it scored the final 18 points to beat Illinois on the road and then played a competitive game against Ohio State in which the Badgers trailed by just a touchdown into the fourth quarter. But then Wisconsin laid an egg in a loss at Indiana and followed up that performance by playing even worse at home against Northwestern.

Nebraska’s run defense is outstanding and ranks third in the FBS (79.6 yards per game). With Allen banged up — he played just one full series last week and carried three times for three yards — the challenge is even more difficult for Wisconsin.

It’s inconceivable to me that Mordecai has thrown just three touchdown passes in 6 1/2 games this season. But the Badgers may have to put the outcome on Mordecai and the passing game while hoping the defense consistently shows up. Wisconsin’s defense allowed 30 yards of total offense to Northwestern in the second half. The same defense allowed 294 yards in the first half.

The only saving grace here is that Nebraska is having an equally mediocre season and has to play on the road, where it’s 1-3 this season. If Wisconsin has any fight left and cares about the value of qualifying for a bowl game, it will come to play on senior day. Badgers fans have to hope as much. Wisconsin 17, Nebraska 14.

What are your thoughts on Nebraska in this matchup and how do you see it playing out?

Sherman: Wisconsin has a higher ceiling. There’s probably no version of the Huskers in 2023 that could push Ohio State.

Nebraska heads to Madison with major questions at QB. Haarberg suffered an ankle injury against Maryland and missed most of practice this week. He’s making the trip. If Chubba Purdy gets the nod, questions persist about his durability. And though Nebraska leads the Big Ten in rushing yardage per game, it will struggle to score points if it can’t produce big chunks and get some level of dynamic play from the QB position.

Nebraska has lost in all five of its trips to Camp Randall as a member of the Big Ten and in eight consecutive games overall against the Badgers. This year in the West, up is down and down is up. So I’m predicting the Huskers will find a way to stay even in the turnover battle. Considering that it committed eight turnovers with a minus-5 margin in the past two games and lost both by a field goal, that alone might give Nebraska enough of a boost to win.

More to the point, I’m not comfortable picking the Badgers, based on what I’ve seen in November. Nebraska 18, Wisconsin 13.

(Top photo: Dylan Widger / USA Today)

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